Monday, November 06, 2006

Accentuate the negative

KMBZ at 11:00 a.m. today reported that Democrats should be smiling over CNN's 11/5 generic poll that showed Democrats up over Republicans by 20 points (i.e., 58 to 38).

KMBZ's report ignored the 11/5 USAT/Gallup poll that showed the Democrats up by just 7 points. The same poll showed Democrats up by 13 points on 10/22. It also ignored the 11/4 ABC/WP poll that showed the Democrats up by just 5 points. The same poll showed Democrats up by 13 points on 10/22. KMBZ also ignored the 11/4 Pew poll that showed the Democrats up by just 4 points. That poll showed the Democrats up by 11 points on 10/22.

The only other poll that showed the Democrats gaining ground was the 11/5 Fox/OD poll, which had the Democrats up by 13 points. The same poll had the Democrats up 11 points on 10/25.

With three major polls showing the race between the Republicans and Democrats tightening, it is odd that KMBZ chose to highlight the CNN poll, which, excluding CNN's 10/8 poll, has the largest spread of the year. It's especially odd when you consider that KMBZ gets its national news from ABC.

Post-election note: The most recent tally shows that Democrat senatorial candidates received 53.7% of the votes on November 7, while GOP candidates received 42.6% of the votes, a difference of 11.1%. Of the polls cited above, the 11/5 Fox/OD poll was closest to the final tally.

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